Makihara (002714): Low price has risen excessively to welcome historical grade pig cycle

Makihara (002714): Low price has risen excessively to welcome historical grade pig cycle

Investment Highlights Makihara’s 2018 revenues were 13.4 billion (+ 33%), attributable to the mother’s profit5.

200 million (-78%).

A golden bonus of 0 per 10 shares was distributed in 2018.

50 RMB.

The company expects a temporary 5 in 2019Q1.

2-5.

600 million.

The listing has grown rapidly, and long-term performance is in line with expectations.

As the production capacity has been put into production, the company’s production volume has maintained rapid growth, with 1,101 production volume in 2018.

10,000 heads, an increase of 52% in ten years.

The swine fever outbreak in Henan in the third quarter had a certain impact on the company’s production volume.

The ban was lifted in the epidemic area in Henan in the fourth quarter, and the suppression of the epidemic has slowed significantly.

10.11 million pigs were slaughtered in 2018, with an average 天津夜网 price of about 11.

62 yuan / kg, the full cost of 11.

53 yuan / kg, fat pig profit is about 10,000 yuan.

In the fourth quarter, the mood to fill the pen fell to the freezing point, which obviously affected the sales volume of the piglets. As a result, the piglets were sold at 860,000 heads, with an average profit of 60 yuan per head and a piglet profit of 0.

500 million.

The breeding contribution in 2018 was 1

About 300 million.

In addition, other income subjects contribute profits3.

7 trillion, of which about 3 trillion subsidies.

A large number of new production capacity will be established, and the steady increase will be steadily advanced, laying the foundation for subsequent rapid growth.

As of the end of 2018, the number of subsidiaries in the company’s breeding sector had reached 84.

At the end 杭州桑拿网 of 2018, the surplus of fixed assets and construction in progress was 172.

2.5 billion, an increase of 42 over the end of 2017.

41%.

Due to changes in the structure of the reserve and breeding capacity, and the apparent production of biological assets has increased slightly, we estimate that the company can stock about 700,000 sows.

The company launched a $ 5 billion non-public offering at the end of 2018 to ensure that cash flow is safe in the extreme environment where the industry bottomed out and the African swine fever epidemic spread, while maintaining a rapid development rate.

The company plans to sell 13 million to 15 million live pigs in 2019.

The de-capacity of the pig industry has exceeded historical extremes. The turning point in pig prices has been expected to run at a high level for a long time to come.

At present, the production capacity continues to be rapidly removed. The decline in February has exceeded historical extremes, and the chain may continue to decline in the future.

Affected by swine fever, farmers withdrew, the situation of empty pens was serious, and the pens were extremely depressed.

After the holiday, pig prices jumped off-season. We believe the industry inflection point has arrived and pig prices have entered the right upward channel.

According to the industry’s production and demand pattern, it is expected that the pig price in this cycle will reach a record high, and the high point is expected to reach 25-30 yuan / kg, and it will run at a high level.

The worst quarterly report for the first quarter of 2019 has passed.

Affected by the epidemic situation, the overall panic selling in the market before the Spring Festival weighed on prices, and pig prices once fell below 10 yuan / kg.

In order to ensure biological safety, strengthen epidemic prevention, and transform pig farms, some costs may be incurred in the current period, reflecting the upward pressure on the cost side.

The minimum and cost gap impacted, leading to a quarterly forecast loss of 5.2-5.

600 million, a quarterly report is the worst time for the industry and the company.

The epidemic situation has caused the industry’s production capacity to exceed historical extremes, and there is a general shortage of pigs in the country. Pig prices are expected to reach a record high.

Pig farming is a growth industry, and the company has ample room for growth in the future.

At present, the pig breeding industry is mainly composed of small and medium-scale farmers, and the proportion of large-scale and large-scale producers has increased rapidly in recent years.

According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture, currently only about 1/3 of the pigs are released from free-range households with less than 50 heads per year; professional households with more than 500 heads per year account for about 38% of the scale of pig farms; more than 10,000 heads of pigs are on the market.The amount accounts for less than 2%.

The company sold 1,101 live pigs in 2018.

10,000 heads, accounting for 1 of the total number of listings in the country.

59%, compared with mature countries such as the United States, the company has a bright future growth space.

Investment suggestion: The company is a white horse leader in the pig industry. Its scale is expanding rapidly, and the company has both cycle and growth.

The worst quarterly report has passed. Considering that pig prices are trying to create historical highs in the current cycle, the company’s performance is very flexible.

We adjusted the company’s net profit attributable to its parent from 2019-2021 to 46 respectively.

2, 148, 173.

9ppm, according to the closing price on March 26, 2019, the corresponding PE is: 24.

8, 7.

8,6.

6x, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk warning: pig price fluctuations; epidemic risk; less than expected.